Statistical Analysis in Art Conservation Research

Evaluates all components of data analysis and shows that statistical methods in conservation are vastly underutilized. Also offers specific examples of possible improvements

The CRONUS-Earth Project: A synthesis

Geological surface-exposure dating using cosmogenic-nuclide accumulation became a practical geochronological endeavor in 1986, when the utility of Be-10, Al-26, Cl-36, and He-3 were all demonstrated. In response to the lack of a common basis for quantifying analytical consistency and calibrating cosmogenic-nuclide production, the CRONUS-Earth Project in the U.S. was started in 2005, along with a European partner project, CRONUS-EU. The goal of the CRONUS-Earth Project was to improve the accuracy and precision of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating in general, focusing especially on nuclide production rates and their variation with altitude, latitude, and time, and to attempt to move from empirically based methods to ones with a stronger basis in physics. The CRONUS-Earth Project conducted extensive intercomparisons of reference materials to attempt to quantify analytical reproducibility at the community level. We found that stated analytical uncertainties nearly always underestimate the actual degree of variability, as quantified by the over-all coefficient of variation of the intercalibration data. The average amount by which the actual coefficient of variation exceeded the analytical uncertainty was a factor of two (100%), but ranged from 15% to 300% depending on the nuclide and material. Coefficients of variation ranged from 3-4% for Be-10 to 6-8% for Cl-36, C-14, and Ne-21, to 5-11% for Al-26. Both interlaboratory bias and within-laboratory excess spread of the data played a role in increasing variability above the stated analytical uncertainties. The physical basis for cosmogenic nuclide production was investigated through numerical modeling and the measurement of energy-dependent neutron cross sections for nuclide interactions. We formulated new, physically based, scaling models, denoted LSD and LSDn, by generalizing global numerical simulations of cosmic-ray processes. The CRONUS-Earth Project identified new geological calibration sites, including one at low latitude and high elevation (Huancane, Peru), and replicated nuclide measurement at numerous laboratories. At many sites multiple nuclides were measured, providing much more confidence in the equivalence of surface-exposure ages calculated from differing nuclides. The data were interpreted using an original cosmogenic-nuclide calculator, CRONUScalc, that incorporates the new physically based scaling. The new data and model produced significantly better fits than previous efforts, but do not fully resolve apparent spatial variations in production rates. The CRONUS-Earth and CRONUS-EU Projects have provided a firm foundation for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of cosmogenic-nuclide analytical methods, adjusted the AMS standards for Be-10 and consequently revised the half-life, and have provided improved calibration data sets and interpretative tools. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Atom-to-continuum methods for gaining a fundamental understanding of fracture.

This report describes an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) project to characterize and understand fracture processes via molecular dynamics modeling and atom-to-continuum methods. Under this aegis we developed new theory and a number of novel techniques to describe the fracture process at the atomic scale. These developments ranged from a material-frame connection between molecular dynamics and continuum mechanics to an atomic level J integral. Each of the developments build upon each other and culminated in a cohesive zone model derived from atomic information and verified at the continuum scale. This report describes an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) project to characterize and understand fracture processes via molecular dynamics modeling and atom-to-continuum methods. The effort is predicated on the idea that processes and information at the atomic level are missing in engineering scale simulations of fracture, and, moreover, are necessary for these simulations to be predictive. In this project we developed considerable new theory and a number of novel techniques in order to describe the fracture process at the atomic scale. Chapter 2 gives a detailed account of the material-frame connection between molecular dynamics and continuum mechanics we constructed in order to best use atomic information from solid systems. With this framework, in Chapter 3, we were able to make a direct and elegant extension of the classical J down to simulations on the scale of nanometers with a discrete atomic lattice. The technique was applied to cracks and dislocations with equal success and displayed high fidelity with expectations from continuum theory. Then, as a prelude to extension of the atomic J to finite temperatures, we explored the quasi-harmonic models as efficient and accurate surrogates of atomic lattices undergoing thermo-elastic processes (Chapter 4). With this in hand, in Chapter 5 we provide evidence that, by using the appropriate energy potential, the atomic J integral we developed is calculable and accurate at finite/room temperatures. In Chapter 6, we return in part to the fundamental efforts to connect material behavior at the atomic scale to that of the continuum. In this chapter, we devise theory that predicts the onset of instability characteristic of fracture/failure via atomic simulation. In Chapters 7 and 8, we describe the culmination of the project in connecting atomic information to continuum modeling. In these chapters we show that cohesive zone models are: (a) derivable from molecular dynamics in a robust and systematic way, and (b) when used in the more efficient continuum-level finite element technique provide results that are comparable and well-correlated with the behavior at the atomic-scale. Moreover, we show that use of these same cohesive zone elements is feasible at scales very much larger than that of the lattice. Finally, in Chapter 9 we describe our work in developing the efficient non-reflecting boundary conditions necessary to perform transient fracture and shock simulation with molecular dynamics

Increased risk of colorectal cancer in type 2 diabetes is independent of diet quality.

Poor diet increases the risk of both colorectal cancer and type 2 diabetes. We investigated the role of diet in the association between diabetes and colorectal cancer.We analyzed data from 484,020 individuals, aged 50-71 years who participated in the prospective National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and were cancer free at baseline (1995-1996). History of diabetes was self-reported. Diet quality was measured with the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), using a self-administered food-frequency questionnaire. Cox regression models were constructed to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of first primary incident colorectal cancer, overall and by anatomical location.During an average follow-up of 9.2 years, we identified 7,598 new cases of colorectal cancer. After controlling for non-dietary confounders, diabetes was associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.36). Further adjustment for diet quality did not attenuate this association. Diabetes was associated with a HR of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.40) in individuals with good diet (quartile 4 of HEI-2005) and 1.58 (95% CI: 1.34, 1.86) in those with poor diet (quartile 1 of HEI-2005), compared to those with no diabetes and good diet. Moreover, diabetes was associated with a stronger risk of proximal than distal colon cancer (HR: 1.33 vs. HR: 1.20), while poor diet was associated with a weaker risk of proximal colon cancer (HR: 1.18 vs. HR: 1.46).Diabetes and poor diet, independently and additively are associated with the increased risk of colorectal cancer

Diet Index-Based and Empirically Derived Dietary Patterns Are Associated with Colorectal Cancer Risk

Previous studies have derived patterns by measuring compliance with preestablished dietary guidance or empirical methods, such as principal components analysis (PCA). Our objective was to examine colorectal cancer risk associated with patterns identified by both methods. The study included 431 incident colorectal cancer cases (225 men, 206 women) and 726 healthy controls (330 men, 396 women) participating in a population-based, case-control study. PCA identified sex-specific dietary patterns and the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-05) assessed adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. A fruits and vegetables pattern and a meat, potatoes, and refined grains pattern were identified among men and women; a third pattern (alcohol and sweetened beverages) was identified in men. The fruits and vegetables pattern was inversely associated with risk among men [odds ratio (OR) = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.21–0.69 for the highest compared with the lowest quartile] and women (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.19–0.65). The meat, potatoes, and refined grains pattern was positively associated with risk in women (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.08–4.50) and there was a suggestion of a positive association among men (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 0.84–2.90; P-trend = 0.070). Men and women with greater HEI-05 scores had a significantly reduced risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.31–0.99; OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.24–0.77, respectively). Following the Dietary Guidelines or a dietary pattern lower in meat, potatoes, high fat, and refined foods and higher in fruits and vegetables may reduce colorectal cancer risk